It is taught in economics at university that the way to get rid of debt is to print money. Though some will pull back in shock horror at the thought this is actually true. Keynesian theory dictates that a high spending fiscal policy, i.e., spending money that a country doesn't have, creates employment, improves GDP and wipes away debt.
A comparison can be made between the US debt after WWII and Greece's debt today. The US then owed 122 percent of its GDP to other countries. Greece owes 113 percent. The US printed money and spent. By 1956 the US debt was still the same but repayments could be sustained due to higher GDP. In fact the US ran trading surpluses during this period.
The alternative action for Greece is to cut back on spending, in other words cut services such as hospitals, the police and new roads. It is easy for people in other countries to say this is what they have to do. If you are Greek, however, life is going to be oppressive for decades. Many Greeks could consider opting out of paying the debt by moving to other European countries. They can do this because they have free movement in the EC. I predict that if spending is cut drastically then emigration will increase to a flood. Life is better on the other side of the fence.
Spending cuts have a bad side effect: it reduces buying power thus causing deflation. Note, the Great Depression was caused by deflation. There will be unemployment queues stretching for blocks. To believe otherwise is an error. Some believe that falling prices allows people to buy more - but paychecks fall even faster and stop completely for some. Rarely does deflation happen, but when it does it means big trouble. Goods remain on shop shelves because people have low, or no income. How can real wages remain high when business income is falling due to low prices?
Unfortunately the US has an advantage that Greece does not have: the US dollar is seen to be the world currency, like a gold standard. Though the US currently prints money and dishes it out worldwide especially where its troops are operating, the value of the dollar remains high.
A comparison can be made between the US debt after WWII and Greece's debt today. The US then owed 122 percent of its GDP to other countries. Greece owes 113 percent. The US printed money and spent. By 1956 the US debt was still the same but repayments could be sustained due to higher GDP. In fact the US ran trading surpluses during this period.
The alternative action for Greece is to cut back on spending, in other words cut services such as hospitals, the police and new roads. It is easy for people in other countries to say this is what they have to do. If you are Greek, however, life is going to be oppressive for decades. Many Greeks could consider opting out of paying the debt by moving to other European countries. They can do this because they have free movement in the EC. I predict that if spending is cut drastically then emigration will increase to a flood. Life is better on the other side of the fence.
Spending cuts have a bad side effect: it reduces buying power thus causing deflation. Note, the Great Depression was caused by deflation. There will be unemployment queues stretching for blocks. To believe otherwise is an error. Some believe that falling prices allows people to buy more - but paychecks fall even faster and stop completely for some. Rarely does deflation happen, but when it does it means big trouble. Goods remain on shop shelves because people have low, or no income. How can real wages remain high when business income is falling due to low prices?
Unfortunately the US has an advantage that Greece does not have: the US dollar is seen to be the world currency, like a gold standard. Though the US currently prints money and dishes it out worldwide especially where its troops are operating, the value of the dollar remains high.
No comments:
Post a Comment